The Pac-12 race isn’t going to bubble over until March.
The five contenders are Cal (10-3), Washington (10-3), Colorado (9-4), Arizona (9-4) and Oregon (9-4).
All of the above have three road games and only two home games left.
“Washington, Cal and Arizona are probably the top three right now,” USC’s Kevin O’Neill, whose Trojans are 1-12 in conference play, said during Tuesday’s coaches teleconference. “I really don’t even know what the standings are right now, to be honest with you. I know where we are, but I don’t know the rest of the standings.
“I think Cal is a veteran team. They play well on the road, and I think they’ll play well at the conference tournament.”
The Buffs are used to being counted out. Don’t be surprised if Tad Boyle’s resilient team is on top of the standings when the calendar flips from February into the madness.
CU plays at Utah on Saturday before wrapping up its home slate Feb. 23-26 against Stanford and Cal.
“They’re going to look back at that game at our place and use it as motivation,” Boyle warns of the Utes, who were blistered 73-33 in Boulder on Dec. 31.
Maybe so. But if the Buffs are serious about this title chase, they’ll find a way to pull out a sweep in Salt Lake City.
Then it’s on to avenge a loss against the Cardinal. Stanford played its best game of the season against CU in Palo Alto on Jan. 14 before fading out of the NCAA Tournament picture.
That sets up a huge Coors Events Center finale against Cal. The Bears are the conference’s only solid candidate for an at-large NCAA Tournament berth right now.
Las Vegas odds makers, based on Utah’s futility and CU’s dominance at home, will likely favor the Buffs to get to 20-8 overall and 12-4 in conference play over the next three games.
And then the championship dreams will live or die in Oregon, when the regular season concludes with CU playing against the Ducks in (March 1) and the Beavers (March 3).
Here’s a quick projection on what will happen to the Pac-12’s First Five down the stretch:
CAL — Mike Montgomery’s consistent team finishes strong with four wins (Oregon, Oregon State, Utah and Stanford) and one loss (CU) to capture a piece of the conference’s regular-season title at 14-4.
WASHINGTON — The Huskies put themselves in position for an at-large bid with a sweep of Arizona and Arizona State, an emotional win at rival Washington State, and a split at UCLA and USC to finish tied for first place at 14-4.
ARIZONA — Sean Miller and Co. will also go 4-1 down the stretch (losing at Washington) but will have more work to do at the conference tournament after finishing third at 13-5 in a conference ranked ninth in RPI.
OREGON — The Ducks will get a Bay Area split (losing to Cal, beating Stanford) but will have their title chase halted with a Civil War loss at Oregon State before sweeping CU and Utah to finish 12-6.
CU — The Buffs’ championship trail ends with a pair of disappointing losses at Oregon and Oregon State. Boyle’s team, picked to finish tied for 10th with Washington State before the season, ends up tied for fourth at 12-6.
The silver lining: CU will win the tiebreaker with Oregon, based on a 2-1 record against Cal and Washington (the Ducks will finish 1-3 against the co-champions).
That will give the Buffs the No. 4 seed and a first-round bye in the Pac-12 Tournament at the Staples Center.
RPI update
The Buffs appear to have a computer problem. CU’s official NCAA RPI this week is 74, which is the worst of any of the five Pac-12 teams in contention for the regular-season title.
Cal’s RPI is 36. Washington (62), Arizona (66) and Oregon (67) are also ahead of CU.
The other seven teams in the conference — Stanford (105), UCLA (124), Oregon State (143), Washington State (150), Arizona State (229), USC (230) and Utah (274) — are outside of the top 100.
No team from the Pac-12 has appeared in the Associated Press or ESPN/USA Today polls since Cal on Nov. 28.
C-Unit advances
The C-Unit has advanced to the semifinal round of the Naismith student section of the year award. The field was narrowed from 80 Division I schools down to 16 via balloting.
CU fans can vote for the C-Unit at facebook.com/ilovecollegehoops until Feb. 24 as the field is cut to the top eight.
The other student sections still in the running are Arizona, Cal, Drexel, Duke, Gonzaga, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Utah State, San Diego State, Syracuse and West Virginia.
Notable
Oregon’s E.J. Singler is the Pac-12’s player of the week after averaging 18 points and 7 rebounds during the Ducks’ sweep of Washington and Washington State. …
Arizona guard Brendon Lavender leads the conference in 3-point shooting percentage (51.5 percent) even though he was 0-for-5 behind the arc in the Wildcats’ win over CU. …
Despite Washington State’s struggles, Brock Motum has been impressive. The junior forward has averaged 25.2 points over the last five games and 21.3 points and 7.6 rebounds over the last nine games.
Quotable
“Believe it or not, we are making progress,” said Arizona State head coach Herb Sendek, whose team fell to 8-17 overall and 4-9 in conference with a loss to CU last Saturday. “I like the progress our team is making, I like our team spirit, and we’re working hard to improve.”
